Service Plays Saturday 12/26/09

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NCAAF DUNKEL INDEX

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 26

Game 213-214: Ohio vs. Marshall
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio 85.560; Marshall 76.217
Dunkel Line: Ohio by 9 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Ohio by 2 1/2; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ohio (-2 1/2); Over

Game 215-216: North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina 95.053; Pittsburgh 99.941
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 5; 41
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 2 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-2 1/2); Under

Game 217-218: Boston College vs. USC
Dunkel Ratings: Boston College 94.265; USC 95.038
Dunkel Line: USC by 1; 46
Vegas Line: USC by 9; 44
Dunkel Pick: Boston College (+9); Over
 
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NCAAF ADDITIONAL

Bowl Season

Trend Report

Saturday, December 26

1:00 PM
OHIO vs. MARSHALL
Ohio is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Marshall
Ohio is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Marshall
Marshall is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Marshall's last 10 games

4:30 PM
NORTH CAROLINA vs. PITTSBURGH
North Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
North Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games

8:00 PM
BOSTON COLLEGE vs. SOUTHERN CAL
Boston College is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston College's last 5 games
Southern Cal is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Southern Cal is 18-4 SU in its last 22 games
 

ugk

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Street Rosenthal of HandicappingTrends
6-1 in the last 7 plays, Street has a rare *500 on Sunday.

*300 Ohio -3 (NCAAF)
*200 Boston College +7 (NCAAF)

Trey is passing in Football.
 

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Cleveland Insider 12/26/09

NBA
Houston -10
Phoenix -3

College Bowl
Boston College +7

11-6 L6 days
 
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coastline sports

NBA
HORNETS +1
ATLANTA @ INDIANA OVER 203
PHOENIX @ GOLDEN STATE UNDER 234

NHL
PHILADELPHIA -125
CHICAGO -130
 
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Lenny Del Genio's Bowl Trifecta of the Year:

1.Lenny Del Genio | CFB Side Sat, 12/26/09 - 1:00 PM double-dime bet 213 Ohio -3.0 (-110) bodog vs 214 Marshall
Analysis:
Play on Ohio at 1:00 ET. Of all the 68 teams that quali~fied for a bowl game this year, Marshall has to rank among the worst of all of them. Not only did the 6-6 Thundering Herd stumble down the stretch, losing three of four, but a 52-21 loss in the season finale to UTEP cost HC Mark Snyder his job after five consecutive non-winning seasons, effectively leaving the program in flux. Interim HC Rick Minter will have little to prove here as Snyder's permanent successor, West Virginia assistant Doc Holliday, has already officially been named. Not only is the coaching staff in total disarray, but no Marshall player has ever appeared in a postseason game either. Meanwhile, Ohio will be looking for its first bowl win ever as well as its first 10-win season since 1968. The Bobcats qualified for the MAC Title game for the second time in four years this season, losing to heavily favored Central Michigan, but were surprisingly able to keep the game close despite essentially playing what was a de facto road game. The main reason was a defense that led the nation in turnover ratio, producing 36 takeaways. Coupled with the special teams, Ohio had a total of 10 non-offensive touchdowns this year, which is not an anomaly, but simply remarkable. QB Theo Scott, who threw for 2258 yards and 19 TD's during the regular season, should find it to be 'easy sledding' against a Marshall pass defense, which ranked 99th in the nation and allowed 517 yards in that season ending loss to UTEP. Do not expect a strong swelling of crowd support either for the Thundering Herd here as the AD reported that only 30% of the alloted tickets had been sold. Take Ohio.


2. Lenny Del Genio | CFB Side Sat, 12/26/09 - 4:30 PM
double-dime bet 216 Pittsburgh -2.5 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 215 North Carolina
Analysis:
Play on Pittsburgh at 4:30 ET. You have to love bowl games named "Little Caesars" and "Meineke Car Care," don't you? Probably neither Pitt nor North Carolina are happy to be here for this mid-level affair as each had aspirations of playing in New Year's Day games. In particular, the Panthers were very close to upsetting unbeaten Cincinnati in the de facto Big East title game on December 5th, blowing a 31-10 second half lead and ended up losing 45-44 thanks to a botched extra point attempt. Still plenty of progress was made in Dave Wannstedt's fifth season at his alma mater as the team can achieve its first 10-win season since 1981. That was back in the Dan Marino days (was a junior). The same cannot be said for Butch Davis and North Carolina, however, who finished a disappointing fourth in the ACC Coastal Division and ended their regular season on a low note~ by losing to rival NC State for a third straight year. Even playing in Charlotte may be of no use as we've already seen regional advantages (UCF in St. Petersburg Bowl) not work out for other teams + the players probably wanted to take a road trip. The key to this game will be offense. UNC finished the year ranked 107th in total offense and 97th in pass efficiency. Losing three NFL draft choices from the WR corps will do that to you. Pitt's offense ranked 11th in the pass efficiency department behind the solid QB Bill Stull and freshman RB Dion Lewis more than filled the void left by LeSean McCoy's departure to the NFL, compiling 1,640 yards and 16 touchdowns. Take Pittsburgh.

3. Lenny Del Genio | CFB Side Sat, 12/26/09 - 8:00 PM
double-dime bet 218 Southern Cal -7.5 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 217 Boston College
Analysis:
Play on USC at 8:00 ET. We expect the anti-Pac 10 sentiment and specifically anti-Trojans sentiment to run wild here as we've already seen this number get bet down substantially. It has not been a good start to the Bowl season for the Pac 10 as both Oregon State and Cal lost outright to Mountain West foes BYU and Utah, and badly at that. The big story heading into this game was supposed to be how motivated Southern Cal could possibly be after appearing in the Rose Bowl for four consecutive seasons. However, that all changed when three Trojans, two of them starters, were ruled academi~cally ineligible and then starting tailback Joe McKnight did not make the trip with the team due to incomplete paperwork and circumstances surrounding the improper usage of a SUV that was registered to a local businessman. Through all of this, USC HC Pete Carroll has vowed that his charges will play this game "like it's the National Championship" and we are inclined to believe him. Simply put, even with all the distractions, the Trojans are too much for a Boston College team that averaged just 14 PPG away from home this year. The passing game is almost non-existent and is non-comparable to many of the Pac 10 offenses that shredded the USC defense during the regular season. In their two road games vs. bowl opponents, the Eagles managed a paltry 215 combined yards of offense and turned the ball over seven times. Remember that for all their struggles, the Trojans D allowed an average of just 20.4 PPG and that number actually went down a full point when playing outside of the Coliseum. Seven of 12 opponents were held to 16 points or less. This is a team that has gone 6-1 SU/ATS in its last seven bowl games under Carroll. Take USC.
 
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Dr Bob

Marshall 25 Ohio (-3.0) 24 (at Little Caesars Bowl)
10:00 AM Pacific, 26-Dec-09

I'll lean with Marshall plus the points and I have no opinion on the total.

Pittsburgh (-2.5) 23 North Carolina 18 (at Meineke Car Bowl)
01:30 PM Pacific, 26-Dec-09

I'll lean with Pitt at -3 points or less and I'll lean Under (44 1/2) at 43 points or higher.

Boston College 19 USC (-7.5) 24 (at Emerald Bowl)
05:00 PM Pacific, 26-Dec-09

I'll lean with Boston College plus the points and I have no opinion on the total (I'd lean under at 45 points or higher)
 
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DCI
Saturday, December 26, 2009
Meineke Car Care Bowl
at Charlotte, NC
North Carolina 24, Pittsburgh 23
Little Caesars Pizza Bowl
at Detroit, MI
Ohio 27, Marshall 18
Emerald Bowl
at San Francisco, CA
Usc 23, Boston College 16
 
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Guaranteed Pick: Larry Ness

Game: North Carolina at Pittsburgh Panthers Dec 26 2009 4:30PM
Prediction: North Carolina
Reason: My LEGEND play is on North Carolina at 4:30 ET. The Panthers come in with the better record (9-3) and have the higher (#17) ranking. The Panthers also have the stronger offense. The Tar Heels (8-3) have several important advantages of their own though. They've got the better defense. In fact, they rank sixth in the entire country in total defense (267.8 yards per game), including ninth against the run and 15th through the air. The Tar Heels will also have the support of the home crowd, as Charlotte is just a two-hour drive from Chapel Hill. Perhaps most importantly, the Tar Heels are the team which wants to be here more. Don't get me wrong. UNC would love to be in a bigger bowl. However, the Tar Heels disappointment about being here pales in comparison to Pittsburgh's disappointment. The Panthers had much bigger plans and their dreams were shattered much later in the season. In fact, you may recall that the Panthers were up 31-10 against Cincinnati in their final game of the regular season. A victory there would have given them a share of the Big East title. It wasn't meant to be though. The Bearcats completed a furious second half rally, scoring the game-winning touchdown with 33 seconds left. That still would have only tied the game if the Panthers hadn't botched the convert on their previous touchdown. That's a tough pill to swallow and it will be difficult for Wannestedt's crew to recover when still thinking about what could have been. The Tar Heels have more to play for. Not only are they playing close to home but they lost here last season. That should make Butch Davis' job of motivating his players much easier. The Tar Heels had some trouble putting away weak teams this season. They were at their best against good teams though. They upset the likes of Virginia Tech and Miami, both ranked teams, and were 4-1 ATS against teams with a winning record - all four of them outright wins. They are now 13-4 ATS against winning teams the last three years. With the Panthers are 1-6 SU and ATS their last seven against teams from the ACC, expect the Tar Heels to step up and score the upset. *10 North Carolina
Good Luck...Larry
 
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THE SPORTS ADVISORS

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

LITTLE CAESARS PIZZA BOWL
(at Detroit)

Ohio (9-4 SU and ATS) vs. Marshall (6-6, 6-5 ATS)

Ohio, back in the postseason after a two-year hiatus, makes the short trek to Ford Field to take on the Thundering Herd, who reached a bowl game for the first time since 2004.

The Bobcats went on a 7-1 SU tear (6-2 ATS) to win the Mid-American Conference’s East Division, earning a date with Central Michigan in the Dec. 4 conference title game. In that meeting, also held in Detroit, the Bobcats lost 20-10 to halt a four-game winning streak, but they covered as a hefty 13½-point underdog to finish the regular season on ATS surges of 9-2 and 4-0. Ohio, led by former Nebraska coach Frank Solich is seeking its first 10-win season since 1968

Marshall stumbled to the finish line in Conference USA, losing three of its last four games SU and ATS, including a 52-21 beatdown as a two-point road pup against Texas-El Paso on Nov. 28 to cap the regular season. The Herd failed to cover in their last three games, following a 6-1 ATS stretch (4-3 SU). Marshall defensive coordinator Rick Minter will serve as the head coach in this contest, taking over for Mark Snyder, who was pressured to resign after the season-ending loss at UTEP.

While Marshall hasn’t gone bowling since 2004, the Bobcats were last in the postseason in 2006, when they fell in the GMAC Bowl to Southern Miss (Conference USA) 28-7 as a six-point underdog.

With Marshall being a former MAC member, these teams used to meet annually. The Thundering Herd won four of the last five meetings, most recently winning 16-13 in October 2005, but Ohio went 4-1 ATS, including cashing a 10-point home ‘dog in that 2004 clash. Going back further, Marshall has won eight of the last nine SU against Ohio, but has cashed just four times in that stretch.

The Bobcats averaged 25.4 points and 324.5 yards per game, with 204.8 ypg coming through the air on the arm of QB Theo Scott, who finished with 2,258 passing yards, 19 TDs and 10 INTs. Ohio’s defense gave up just 21.3 ppg and 354.2 ypg, but 150.9 rushing ypg.

The Thundering Herd averaged 21.8 points and 355.3 ypg (216.5 passing, 138.8 rushing), but they gave up more on both counts, allowing 24.9 points and 392.5 yards per outing. QB Brian Anderson paced Marshall’s offense, throwing for 2,561 yards, but his 14 TDs were offset by 13 INTs.

Along with their current 4-0 ATS run, the Bobcats are on pointspread upswings of 8-1-1 following a spread-cover and 7-2 outside the MAC. Marshall is 3-9 ATS in its last dozen non-conference tilts and 1-4 ATS in its last five against the MAC, but the Herd sport positive ATS streaks of 6-1 in December and 5-1 in bowl games.

Ohio is on “under” runs of 5-1 as a favorite and 9-4 in non-conference contests, and the under is on a bundle of tears for Marshall, including 8-2 overall, 6-1 with the Herd as an underdog, 4-1 in bowl games, 4-1 outside Conference USA, 7-2 against winning teams, 4-1 after a SU loss and 10-4 after a non-cover.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER


MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL
(at Charlotte, N.C.)

North Carolina (8-4, 6-5 ATS) vs. (17) Pittsburgh (9-3, 7-4 ATS)

The Panthers, who narrowly missed out on winning the Big East championship and earning a BCS bowl bid, instead drop down to a second-tier contest when they head to Bank of America Stadium to face North Carolina, which ostensibly will be playing a home game.

Pittsburgh went on a six-game winning streak (4-2 ATS) to surge into BCS contention, then lost its last two games by a total of four points (1-1 ATS). In fact, the Panthers’ three defeats were by a total of 11 points. In the season finale against Cincinnati on Dec. 5, with the Big East title and BCS berth on the line, the Panthers raced out to a 31-10 second-quarter lead, but they couldn’t hold off a furious Bearcats rally, losing 45-44 on a TD pass in the waning seconds. Still, Pitt cashed as a 1½-point home pup, ending a two-game ATS hiccup.

North Carolina finished the regular season on a 4-1 SU and ATS run, including outright wins from the underdog role at Virginia Tech, against Miami at home and at Boston College. However, the Tar Heels fell to in-state rival North Carolina State in the Nov. 28 finale 28-27 as a 5½-point road chalk, but they still reached the postseason for a second straight year, after a three-year bowl hiatus.

The Panthers were dealt a 3-0 loss as a one-point pup in a yawner of a Sun Bowl last year, and they’ve failed to cash in their last four postseason games. Meanwhile, this is the Tar Heels’ second straight trip to the Meineke Car Care Bowl, having lost to West Virginia last year 31-30 as a two-point underdog. UNC is 5-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven postseason appearances.

These teams met twice in three seasons from 1998-2000, but they haven’t gotten together since. North Carolina took both those matchups SU and ATS, including a 20-17 road victory getting seven points in November 2000. In fact, the Tar Heels have cashed in each of five all-time lined clashes between these schools.

Freshman RB Dion Lewis racked up 1,635 rushing yards and 12 TDs, averaging 5.5 ypc for a potent Pitt rushing attack that put up 184.6 ypg among its 399.9 total ypg. Wideout Jonathan Baldwin (54 catches, 1,080 yards, 20 ypc, 8 TDs) also had a big year. The Panthers averaged 33.2 ppg, while the defense gave up 20 points and 323.9 total yards per game and also led the nation in sacks. Pitt’s defense yielded more than 22 points just three times all year..

Carolina had one of the nation’s least productive offenses, averaging just 311.3 ypg (107th out of 120 teams) while putting up 24.3 ppg, scoring more than 21 points just five times against Division I-A competition. However, the Tar Heels countered the sluggish offense by fielding the sixth-best total defense (267.8 ypg), which surrendered just 16.9 ppg.

Pitt is in ATS ruts of 3-8 as a favorite of three points or less and 2-5 against ACC opposition. But they are also on a 4-0 ATS run following a SU loss and are on additional spread-covering streaks of 4-1 in December and 7-3 as a chalk.

The Tar Heels are on pointspread surges of 5-2 overall, 4-0 against winning teams, 4-1 after a non-cover, 12-3 catching three points or less and 5-2 outside the ACC.

The under has hit in six of Pitt’s last eight outings overall (5-1 in its last six as a favorite), but the over is 4-1 in the Panthers’ last five against the ACC and 5-1 in their last six as a chalk of three points or less. North Carolina is on “over” spurts of 5-2 overall, 5-1 in non-conference play, 7-2 with the Heels a ‘dog and 8-3 against Big East foes.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTH CAROLINA and OVER


EMERALD BOWL
(at San Francisco)

Boston College (8-4, 6-5 ATS) vs. Southern Cal (8-4, 3-9 ATS)

The Trojans, perennial BCS contenders who completely fell apart this season, try to end things on a high note when they head up the Pacific Coast to AT&T Park to face Boston College.

Southern Cal was dealt an early-season upset loss at Washington, then dropped three of its last five games (1-4 ATS), ending a seven-year run in which it either won or shared the Pac-10 title. Two of those final three losses were stunning blowouts – a 47-20 setback at Oregon as a three-point road chalk, followed two weeks later by a 55-21 home wipeout to Stanford as an 11½-point favorite. The Trojans finished the regular season Dec. 5 with a 21-17 loss to Arizona as a seven-point home choice.

Boston College finished the year on a 4-2 SU surge to get bowl-eligible, capped by a 19-17 win at Maryland on Nov. 28, though it fell short as a 4½-point road favorite. That marked the third straight ATS setback for the Eagles, following a 5-1 ATS run. BC’s offense was less than impressive over the final three games (2-1 SU), getting held to 19 points or less in all three and totaling just 46 points (15.3 ppg).

USC crushed Penn State 38-24 in last year’s Rose Bowl, covering as a 9½-point favorite in improving to 6-1 ATS in their last seven bowl games (3-0 SU and ATS last three). The Eagles are in a bowl game for the 11th consecutive year, going 9-1 SU (6-4 ATS) in the previous 10 postseason appearances. However, B.C. has failed to cash in its last three bowl outings (2-1 SU).

USC scored 26.7 points and averaged 385.1 yards per contest with a fairly balanced attack (211.7 ypg passing, 173.4 ypg rushing). Defensively, the Trojans surrendered 20.4 points and 342.8 yards per outing (211.8 passing, 131 rushing). However, after giving up a total of just 43 points in the first five games, USC got torched for 28.9 ppg over its final seven contests, yielding 27 points or more four times.

BC ranked just 97th in the nation in total offense 324.9 ypg, and that translated into 25.8 ppg. Sophomore RB Montel Harris was the offensive star, rushing for 1,357 yards (4.8 ypc) and 13 TDs. The Eagles’ defense surrendered just 19.4 ppg and 318.4 ypg.

These teams haven’t met in 21 years, after squaring off in a home-and-home series in 1987 and 1988. USC won both contests (1-1 ATS), including a 34-7 road blowout in 1988 as a 5½-point chalk.

The Trojans are on a handful of spread-covering slides, including 1-6 overall (all as a favorite), 0-4 in December, 1-5 against winning teams and 1-4 after a non-cover. However, they are on ATS rolls of 5-1 as a bowl chalk, 15-5 laying 3½ to 10 points in any game, 24-8 outside the Pac-10 and 13-5 following a SU loss.

The Eagles sport positive ATS streaks of 16-7 as a pup, 4-0 as a bowl ‘dog, 6-1 in non-conference action and 7-3 against winning teams. But Boston College is in the midst of ATS skids of 0-5 in December and 1-5 at neutral sites.

Southern Cal is on “under” tears of 24-11-1 overall, 28-13-1 as a favorite, 6-0 after a SU loss and 4-0 in December, and the under for Boston College is on rolls of 4-1 overall, 5-0 outside the ACC and 4-1 on neutral fields. However, the total has gone high in USC’s last five bowl games overall and its last four as a postseason chalk.

ATS ADVANTAGE: SOUTHERN CAL
 

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